The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
'India seems to be on a relatively better wicket compared to other emerging markets.'
The inflation data for May and the US Fed interest rate decision are the crucial factors that would dictate terms in the equity market this week, analysts said. Moreover, foreign fund trading activity, movement of rupee and crude oil prices would be the other key monitarables for the markets, they added. "All eyes will be on the US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) decision scheduled on June 15, and the market is fearing aggressive rate hikes amid inflation monster. "Bank of Japan will also announce its credit policy on June 17.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Friday after two days of fall, helped by buying in metal, telecom and auto stocks amid a firm trend in global markets. Automakers led by Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai, Mahindra & Mahindra reporting robust wholesales of passenger vehicles and GST collections crossing Rs 1.50 lakh crore for the third straight month in May also added to the optimism. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 118.57 points or 0.19 per cent to settle at 62,547.11.
Citing the massive surge in Omicron infections and the resultant impact on overall economic activities in the March quarter, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised downwards its India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 9.1 per cent from 9.5 per cent earlier. However, UBS Securities does not see the third wave impact extending to the next financial year as it has revised upwards its real GDP forecast to 8.2 per cent, up from 7.7 per cent earlier, expecting the real GDP growth to remain well above the historical average. The World Bank pegs it at 8.3 per cent, unchanged from its June assessment, saying the recovery is not broad-based yet.
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
Investors have turned cautious ahead of the policy meetings of central banks in Japan and the US
'The first half of 2019 could be volatile.' 'In the second half, volatility inducing events should be largely behind us.'
The decline bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in mid-2015
Pharma shares extended losses after the government's ban on combination drugs.
Frantic dollar demand from corporates along with an aggressive hedging strategy adopted by importers in the wake of the currency volatility predominately took a toll on the domestic unit despite moves by the central bank to stabilise the currency.
It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
The rupee depreciated 44 paise and slipped below the 81-mark against the US dollar for the first time in early trade on Friday, weighed down by the strong american currency and risk-off sentiment among investors. Forex traders said escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine and rate hikes by the US Fed and Bank of England in a bid to contain inflation sapped risk appetite. Further, the strength of the American currency in the overseas market, a negative trend in domestic equities, and risk-off moods amid escalation of geopolitical risk in Ukraine weighed on the local unit.
Equity markets would be mainly driven by global trends and foreign fund trading activity in the holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The BSE and the National Stock Exchange have listed March 7 (Tuesday) as a holiday on account of Holi. However, stock brokers' association ANMI has urged the government, exchanges and Sebi to shift the holiday to March 8 from March 7.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Strong dollar will impact financial system in India.
Tata Motors was the worst performer on the Sensex, plummeting 10.32 per cent to Rs 436.55 after the company reported a steep 96.22 per cent decline in consolidated net profit for the December quarter.
'The response from the government using words like malicious, deliberate, etc is diverting from the real issue.' 'The indicators related to young children such as stunting or child mortality are a reflection of the social development in the country.' 'That's how we have to look at it and not ignore the issue by denying the data.'
Investors have scaled back their allocation to equities as pessimism has reached "dire" levels due to cloudy economic outlook, according to the latest Bank of America (BofA) monthly global fund manager survey that covered nearly 300 money managers with combined assets of $800 billion. The survey showed that the expectations for global growth and profits are at all-time lows and cash levels are at highest since the 9/11 attacks. Interest rate hikes by central banks, the unwinding of an easy monetary regime, disruptions in global supply chains, and fears of recession have heightened market volatility since the beginning of the year.
'Such big falls are quite frequent these days, so do not try to time this market.' 'Use big dips to accumulate quality stocks.'
The rupee had plunged to close at its fresh two-year low of 66.84 against the dollar by falling 11 paise in Tuesday's trade.
Sliding for the fourth straight day, the BSE Sensex shed 152 points in choppy trade on Wednesday amid mixed global cues ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision.
The rupee on Friday bounced back 32 paise to close at 64.74 against the American currency on fresh selling of dollar.
The broader Nifty also succumbed to the pressure before recovering to close lower by 6.35 points, or 0.07 per cent at 8,693.05
'The market will focus on the fact that India does have strong earnings growth this year.'
IPO market hopes to come out of slump in festive season, reports Sundar Sethuraman.
Investors may take a 5 to 10 per cent exposure to silver. 'Have a long-term investment horizon when investing in silver ETFs to ride out short-term market fluctuations.'
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, quarterly earnings of corporates and domestic macroeconomic data will influence trading in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Foreign funds' trading activity, monthly automobile sales data and global trends would also guide market movement this week, they added. Markets would remain closed on Monday on account of 'Maharashtra Day'.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 61.45/46 per dollar, weaker from Wednesday's 61.35/36.
The rupee had lost 21 paise on Tuesday's trade.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Power Grid, Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance, NTPC, HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, Nestle and Kotak Mahindra Bank were the major gainers. Infosys, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever and Titan were the major laggards.
At a time when the market is betting on a 'higher for longer' global interest rate view, Accenture's (ACN) weak revenue forecast is a negative read-through for the Indian IT firms, according to analysts. The Dublin-based company sees its revenue growth at 2-5 per cent in constant currency (cc) for the financial year 2024 (FY24), below the pre-Covid levels of 5-8 per cent for FY17-20. The weak projection, thus, signals that slower demand is likely to persist this year, and any recovery is unlikely in the near-to-medium term, experts note.
Only the top 5 per cent profit makers account for 75 per cent of profits.
Online travel portals are flooded with flight and train bookings, hotels teeming with requests for accommodation, and spiritual merchandise on e-commerce platforms is selling like hotcakes. As the consecration ceremony of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on January 22 draws near, Indians across the country are putting their travelling boots on as the temple frenzy catches on. India's largest travel technology (traveltech) platform MakeMyTrip (MMT) has witnessed a substantial four-fold increase in bookings for Ayodhya compared to the previous year.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
Equity markets this week will be largely guided by trends in global stocks, foreign funds' trading activity and progress of monsoon, analysts said. Investors will also track the movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at fresh lifetime highs on Friday.
A rate cut will bring positive sentiment around the Budget.
'Rate cut should reiterate RBI's commitment in providing confidence to consumers and small business.'
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
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